U.S Stock Market

Buy? or Sell?

Deciding whether to buy or sell stocks is a highly personal choice that depends on your financial goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and current market conditions. I can’t provide personalized financial advice, but I can share factors to consider when making your decision:

Interest Rates & Fed Policy
- The Fed has held rates steady at 5.25%-5.5% (highest in 23 years) to combat inflation. Markets are anxious about delayed rate cuts as inflation (CPI) remains sticky (~3.3% YoY as of June 2024).
- Bond yields (10-year Treasury near 4.3%) are drawing investors away from equities.
Corporate Earnings
- Mixed Q2 2024 earnings reports:
  - Tech giants (e.g., NVIDIA, Apple) saw volatility due to AI hype cooling and slowing consumer tech demand.
  - Banks (e.g., JPMorgan, Citigroup) face pressure from commercial real estate loan defaults.
  - Energy stocks declined as oil prices dropped to ~$80/barrel on weaker global demand.
Geopolitical Tensions
- Escalating Middle East conflicts (Israel-Hezbollah clashes) and Ukraine war disruptions.
- U.S.-China trade friction over tariffs (e.g., EVs, semiconductors) and Taiwan tensions.
Economic Data
- Cooling labor market: Unemployment rose to 4.1% (June 2024), signaling potential slowing growth.
- Consumer spending softened, with retail sales growth at 0.2% MoY in May 2024.
- Housing market slumped further due to high mortgage rates (~7%).
Political Uncertainty
- 2024 U.S. presidential election rhetoric (e.g., tax policy debates, regulatory risks).
- Debt ceiling concerns resurfacing ahead of 2025 deadlines.
Global Risks
- China’s property crisis deepening (e.g., Evergrande liquidation).
- EU economic stagnation and energy price volatility.

Tech: Profit-taking after 2023’s AI-driven rally.
Small-Caps: Hurt by high borrowing costs (Russell 2000 down ~10% YTD).
Real Estate: Commercial property valuations collapsing (e.g., office vacancies).